Monday, September 1, 2014

Ebola won't be a pandemic

Between 2,000 and 5,000 travelers arrive monthly in the New York City metropolitan area from the West African Countries currently struggling to contain the Ebola Virus outbreak. It is highly unlikely though that an individual infected with the virus will arrive here without the medical community knowing about him or her.  Any passenger found to be sick on the flight would be reported to the CDC Quarantine Station by the flight crew and whisked into isolation with full infection control precautions in place. If the illness starts after arrival all emergency departments are prepared to isolate the sick traveler and determine the etiology of the febrile illness. Typhoid fever, cholera and malaria are infinitely more likely than Ebola.


Of the fifty or so people who have arrived in NYC from West Africa sick none have even had an illness worrisome for Ebola let alone the disease. This includes the well-known patient at Mt. Sinai. Should a patient with Ebola arrive in NYC there would still be little reason for the general public to be concerned. The primary transmission risk for Ebola is to health care workers who do not have adequate personal protective equipment and persons handling infected bodies during burial rites. The health care systems in the affected countries are both understaffed and under resourced, a problem not present in NYC (or anywhere in the US for that matter).  NYC has the ability to rapidly test suspect patients, something that isn’t easily done in West Africa. Additionally, Ebola, unlike say measles, isn’t contagious until after symptoms begin, so there is time to implement control measures. Ebola isn’t airborne so to be infected one needs to come in contact with body fluids. The risk of Ebola transmission is low during the beginning of the illness, therefore hospital infection control precautions can be put in place in time and reduce the risk to health care workers. Ebola just isn’t the type of disease to pose a risk to the general US population. It’s not the Andromeda strain.


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